$140k or bust? Simulation says Bitcoin’s odds are now 50-50

In accordance with economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% probability of reaching $140,000 earlier than the month ends. He put that likelihood at X and backed it up with simulation work that makes use of a decade of worth actions to plot the outcomes.

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Simulation primarily based on historic information

Peterson mentioned the mannequin runs a whole lot of simulations utilizing each day Bitcoin Costs relationship again to 2015. Primarily based on these runs, he put the possibility of Bitcoin ending the month above $140,000 at 50%.

He additionally gave a 43% likelihood that the worth will finish the month beneath $136k. On the time he spoke, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $121,200. Meaning a rise of about 11% can be wanted to succeed in $140,000 from present ranges.

Half of Bitcoin’s features could have already occurred, in accordance with this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% probability of Bitcoin ending the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% probability that Bitcoin finally ends up beneath $136k. pic.twitter.com/lphfr0mry9

-Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredValue) October 7, 2025

Bitcoin set a contemporary excessive of $126,200 on Monday after which cooled off. The coin began October At about $116,500, the month has already produced features.

In accordance with information, October has been the second finest month on common since 2013, with typical features of 20%. Experiences have revealed that November is traditionally the strongest month, averaging 46% features since 2013.

No human emotion

Peterson described his prediction as pushed by information slightly than human emotion. He mentioned every projection tracks worth modifications that mirror Bitcoin’s previous volatility and rhythm.

That strategy is meant to take away bias from short-term sentiment. But there are limits to what historic simulations can present.

Bitcoin has generally moved in ways in which haven’t matched previous patterns. Market reactions, coverage strikes and different forces can push costs off the script that historical past suggests.

Market sentiment stays bullish

Different analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the current excessive. One analyst mentioned the market was retesting earlier highs and will transfer increased.

One other wrote that stress was constructing for additional features. These views sit alongside data-driven forecasts and are seen by merchants and funds.

Bitcoin is the brand new hurdle.

If you cannot beat it, you can purchase it.

I defined @Squawkcnbc This morning why so many traders aren’t producing the returns they suppose they’re. pic.twitter.com/re98rjcdua

– Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@apompliano) October 7, 2025

Macro feedback from a outstanding investor

Experiences even have feedback from Anthony Pompliano, who has argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can proceed if governments and central banks proceed to print cash.

Alone in: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin won’t ever cease going up.

“They are going to by no means cease printing cash.” pic.twitter.com/qewjntsib3

– Bitcoin Archive (@btc_archive) October 7, 2025

His view ties financial coverage to Bitcoin demand, and it’s extensively shared with supporters who see the asset as a hedge.

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Featured picture from the decision, chart from TradingView