JPMorgan maintains ‘Neutral’ rating on Bullish, lowers 2026 price target to $45

JPMorgan analysts maintained a “impartial” score on the Bullish (BLSH) crypto change after it reported third-quarter outcomes that exceeded income and EBITDA expectations.

In a inventory analysis report Thursday, analysts barely lowered their December 2026 value goal to $45 from $46 and lowered their 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates to take away funding revenue from the corporate’s $1.2 billion IPO proceeds.

The brand new $45 value goal implies an upside of roughly 23.3% from Thursday’s closing value of $36.50. The block’s information dashboard.

“We keep our impartial score, however decrease our value goal as we will higher account for curiosity revenue on stablecoins,” the analysts mentioned.

For the third quarter, Bullish reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.10, in keeping with the Bloomberg consensus. Income got here in at $77 million, forward of the consensus of $74 million and JPMorgan’s estimate of $74 million, whereas adjusted EBITDA of $29 million exceeded the anticipated $26 million.

JPMorgan analysts mentioned they view the outcomes as “stable,” with subscription companies and different (SS&O) revenues of $50 million driving within the upside. That determine was a rise from final 12 months’s $12 million and beat JPMorgan’‘s forecast of $47 million, even with a “seasonally weaker” occasion schedule.

Decrease estimates

Nevertheless, the analysts revised their estimates after they determined to take away the high-margin stablecoin promotion income generated from the corporate’s $1.2 billion IPO proceeds from their core income mannequin and valuation.

The analysts estimate that roughly $6.2 million of the quarter’s SS&O income got here from promotional funds on the $1.2 billion in IPO proceeds in stablecoins. Excluding this one-time merchandise, which carries a margin of about 100%, third-quarter adjusted EBITDA would have been nearer to $22.4 million, the analysts mentioned.

The corporate additionally lowered its 2025 adjusted EPS estimate from $0.44 to $0.31 and its 2026 estimate from $1.29 to $0.93, primarily to take away anticipated funding revenue from IPO proceeds from each years.

JPMorgan now expects Bullish to generate about $12 million in stablecoin promotion income from the IPO within the fourth quarter — about $37 million annualized by 2027 — which excludes the financial institution from its core valuation.

Regardless of the estimated reductions, JPMorgan says the fourth quarter tendencies look robust, setting the stage for a “rather more constructive” buying and selling surroundings for Bullish in comparison with the third quarter.

“Regardless of falling market caps, increased volatility is fueling buying and selling volumes, with reported noticed common month-to-month volatility rising by +46% quarter-over-quarter in bitcoin and +12% in ether in October,” JPMorgan wrote.

Analysts additionally pointed to the earlier-than-expected launch of choices buying and selling and continued US institutional onboarding following the October award of a New York BitLicense.

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