Bitcoin fizzles in ‘Uptober’ – Is a November rally still possible?

Key Takeaways

Why Did Bitcoin Fail in October 2025?

BTC fell as retail curiosity declined, community exercise cooled, and macro pressures weighed available on the market.

Might November carry an indication?

Traditionally sturdy for BTC, November may supply upside potential due to macro catalysts.

‘Uptober’ was not launched this 12 months.

As a substitute of the standard profit, Bitcoin [BTC] fell and with it the curiosity of the retail commerce disappeared. Community exercise decreases as concern takes over.

Can the rally proceed in November?

BTC was having a tough time, all eyes on November

Bitcoin’s value fell from round $118,000 to virtually $110,000 in late October, with mid-month pink candles and quantity spikes indicating profit-taking.

The RSI was under impartial and BTC was buying and selling under the important thing EMAs on the time of writing, confirming the exhaustion of the developments.

Supply: TradingView

Macro components extra pressure. Hopes for a Fed price lower in December have pale considerably, eradicating some help from the market.

On the similar time, US shares outperformed, China enforced crypto restrictions and issues about ‘DAT firms’ in Washington added to the story.

Supply: CoinGlass

Wanting forward, November has traditionally been considered one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. CoinGlass has proven a mean return of 8.81% since 2013, with double-digit good points in 2020, 2021 and 2023.

Supply: CME FedWatch

A number of optimistic market catalysts are beginning to take form.

First, commerce tensions between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have eased, lowering geopolitical uncertainty.

In the meantime, information from CME Fed Watch factors to a higher than 60% probability of a Federal Reserve price lower in December, which may enhance investor sentiment.

Moreover, quantitative tightening (QT) is predicted to finish on December 1, probably rising market liquidity.

Lastly, potential approvals for brand spanking new ETFs are on the horizon, including to rising optimism within the monetary sectors.

The tide can flip.

Retail concern in numbers

Open curiosity almost jumped 10% on a seven-day foundation, rising from $7.95 billion to $8.65 billion as BTC traded close to $110,000, however CVD fell sharply on the similar time.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Often that mixture signifies that new shorts are opened, and never longs. The retail sector is betting on a brand new downturn.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Lively addresses have also fallen from 1.18 million in November 2024 to 872 million on October 30 – a lower of 26.1%.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Transaction charges fell sharply from $8.44 to $0.56 over the identical interval, indicating partially stuffed blocks and diminished exercise from personal customers.

Supply: CryptoQuant

This declining retail presence lengthens cycles, making rallies take longer to return to fruition.