Bitcoin Path to $1 Million Cleared as OG Sellers Fade: Weisberger

Former chairman and co-founder of CoinRoutes and now president of BetterTrade.digital Dave Weisberger used a November 11 video to reiterate Bitcoin’s long-term bull case, arguing that the market’s “gloomy” sentiment and tech-driven requires draw back miss the structural shift underway on each the market’s fundamentals and microstructure.

He framed his evaluation in two elements – why Bitcoin is being purchased and what the present market construction entails – and argued that the thesis in the direction of seven-figure costs stays intact even with out a clear near-term catalyst.

The street to $1 million per Bitcoin

By way of fundamentals, he made a direct comparability with the financial position and measurement of gold. Citing an above-ground market worth of “about $28 trillion” and “about $7 trillion in recognized underground reserves,” Weisberger argued that about 80% of gold’s worth is financial, not industrial, utilizing the platinum-gold value relationship as a benchmark.

“Gold right now trades at about two and a half instances platinum, which for many of my life has been about double the worth of gold,” he mentioned, including that platinum is “30 instances rarer and extra prized by ladies in jewellery.” From that relative worth lens, he estimated the “financial worth of gold totally diluted at round $28 trillion,” in distinction to the “totally diluted market cap of Bitcoin.” […] simply over $2 trillion at present costs.”

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If Bitcoin equals or surpasses gold by way of financial traits, he argued, the hole implies a transformative benefit: “It might develop to be like gold. Solely it is higher than gold by way of financial traits.” He highlighted Bitcoin’s pure digital finality, resistance to counterfeiting, divisibility, transparency and programmatic supply schedule – advantages that additionally keep away from the custody, evaluation and transportation frictions of gold.

Even in a state of affairs the place fiat “retains its worth,” he advised, community adoption alone might justify a a number of value repricing; in a regime of debasement, he mentioned, the asymmetry is stronger: “Because the Bitcoin community grows and features acceptance, it can most likely develop tenfold or extra.” Through X, he added that “the basic case” is $1 million in right now’s {dollars}.

Weisberger has revisited the “quickest horse” framework that grew to become in style in the course of the liquidity growth of the early COVID period. He referenced Paul Tudor Jones’ assertion in Could 2020, acknowledging that he had initially made a mistake, and reminded viewers that the worth then “did nothing” for months, earlier than incrementally accelerating from October by means of the following euphoric leg larger. The lesson, he says, is that market tone will lag fundamentals till positioning is reset and liquidity management returns to Bitcoin. “Historical past does not at all times repeat itself, however generally it will probably rhyme,” he mentioned.

By way of market construction, Weisberger targeted on the four-year halving cycle as a predictive mannequin. Traditionally, he mentioned, the cyclical habits adopted a sample: a halving, a six-month interval of doubt about miners’ encouragement, then a rally from reduction to euphoria that later culminated in an altcoin rotation earlier than a broad decline.

He argued that the dynamic is shedding relevance as a result of modifications in provide at the moment are “irrelevant relative to the quantity of demand on the market,” whereas community safety tendencies inform a unique story: “If you happen to take a look at the hash fee graph of Bitcoin, it’s rising at a geometrical fee.” The shifting elements that truly drive costs, he says, are the interplay between historic provide and institutional demand. “It is really the OG sellers who promote over 100,000 [BTC] and the brand new patrons, whether or not they’re in ETFs or in MicroStrategy, and many others.”

In his view, these early holders are rationally diversifying life-changing income fairly than capitulating, implying a finite overhang: “Entrepreneurs usually do not promote all the pieces. […] they promote some at a degree to get the place they must be after which […] promote at later costs.”

He underscored that spot ETF traders seem affected person regardless of latest volatility. “Even after all of the carnage of the previous few weeks since October 10, lower than 2% of Bitcoin ETFs have flown out,” he mentioned, characterizing that cohort as long-horizon allocators who have been “searching for 10x features,” and never buying and selling round single-digit declines.

He contrasted the debt discount in October: “$20 billion was liquidated […] however solely 5 billion of the liquidation passed off in Bitcoin” – with the 2022 insolvency cascade: “This cycle has no Celsius […] doesn’t have FTX. The impression of the liquidations won’t result in an insolvency that may result in pressured gross sales.”

With out a credit-driven taper, he argued, technical analogies to 2022 are misplaced: “If there are not any pressured gross sales, why can we count on gross sales of the magnitude that occurred in 2022? […]? They attempt to attribute one thing with out taking into consideration the precise circumstances.”

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In accordance with him, value management will return by means of “liquidity and gradual development” whereas sizzling cash recovers from debt-related losses. He expects OG gross sales to “decelerate” because the partial profit-taking runs its course, paving the best way for the subsequent euphoric leg as soon as a catalyst emerges.

Weisberger didn’t faux to know what spark would ignite this – “I’m no Nostradamus” – however listed believable vectors according to earlier cycles: “The catalyst may very well be the buildup of sovereign states. The catalyst may very well be Bitcoin used as collateral. […] It does not actually matter what the catalyst is.”

The principle danger for potential sellers, he advised, is a timeout from the market in the course of the reversal: “Until you might be very nimble and really quick, haven’t any tax implications, and are usually not out of the market or on trip within the two or three days when the euphoria first units in, then I might be very reluctant to promote right here.”

My two-part Bitcoin evaluation:

1) The Basic Argument for $1 Million Bitcoin in TODAY’s Greenback

2) Why the present gloom is unfounded and now is an efficient time to build up Bitcoin for the long run

The Bull Case for Bitcoin 11 11 https://t.co/0ACKrn3bgQ through @YouTube

— Dave W (@daveweisberger1) November 12, 2025

He closed with a warning that acknowledges the market’s capability to frustrate each bulls and bears. “Perhaps the euphoria will set in after it lasts just a few extra months and subsides, however sooner or later it can occur,” he mentioned. He made his place recognized – “I have not offered any sats, and I do not intend to” – and reiterated the self-discipline required in a uneven tape: “Keep secure on the market. This market seems to be attention-grabbing and can most likely keep that manner for some time.”

On the time of writing, BTC was buying and selling at $104,954.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com