Bitcoin prices drop – Is $100K safe after Q1-style sell-off?

Key Takeaways

Why did BTC.D rise whereas Bitcoin fell?

Altcoins bled tougher than BTC, so capital shifted to Bitcoin as a relative secure haven, growing BTC’s dominance by 2.33% to 63%

Can BTC Fall Again to $100,000?

If the $110,000 backside holds throughout the alt-to-BTC rotation, a drop to $100,000 appears unlikely, though merchants ought to take note of the important thing variations.

This week reminded us that timing is all the pieces in crypto.

On the one hand, virtually $20 billion value of Bitcoin [BTC] positions have been worn out, leaving many merchants to undergo heavy losses. However some got here out on prime. For instance, one whale was $735 million BTC quick and scored large.

In truth, this transfer aligned so completely with macro FUD that merchants are speculating about “insider buying and selling,” demonstrating the significance of timing. Which brings us to the large query: Is Bitcoin headed for a Q1-style breakdown?

Key BTC ranges are crumbling because the market relives the primary quarter FUD

Simply because the market appeared to soak up the shocks, one other crash occurred.

It virtually appeared just like the market had realized to shrug off surprises; Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s 7% drop to $109,000 on October 10 proved that charges can nonetheless shake perception and set off panic assaults.

On the charts, BTC has erased all positive factors from late September and early October, pulling again 13% from the ATH of $125,000. The $116,000 – $119,000 help zone broke even when there was a short-term lengthy piled up in heavy, turning sentiment bearish in a flash.

Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Towards this association, a Q1 style -11.8% BTC decline wouldn’t be extreme.

On the time, Trump minimize successive 25% tariffs in February and March, then launched sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” in April. The implications? BTC misplaced 30%, marking the worst sell-off because the 2022 bear market.

If historical past repeats itself, Bitcoin might see its first crimson fourth quarter in two years. In truth, a dip again to $100,000 can be on the desk. That mentioned, an necessary distinction reveals that it could be too early to talk of a whole withdrawal.

Bitcoin is slipping as dominance peaks amid altcoin sell-off

Regardless of the market-wide hemorrhage, Bitcoin has regained greater than 60% market share.

Merely put, altcoins have been crushed tougher than BTC. Even throughout the dip, Bitcoin was nonetheless seen because the ‘safer wager’, inflicting Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) to rise 2.33% to 63%, bringing it again to early August ranges.

The implications? The Altcoin Seasonal Index dumped 12 factors to 47, that means the market is just midway to a full ‘Bitcoin season’. This displays the primary quarter, when BTC.D peaked at 65%, fueling a 30% restoration within the second quarter.

Supply: TradingView (BTC.D)

In brief, regardless of the sell-off, BTC remained the secure haven.

If this hole holds, $110,000 might type a backside as capital rotates out of “high-risk, high-reward” alts into Bitcoin, one thing value maintaining an in depth eye on. On this context, a drop to $100,000 turns into unlikely.