Bitcoin’s 17% crash explained: $88M whale short, tariff shock & more…

The crash was largely a matter of timing – each political and psychological.

Supply: Cryptoquant

Retail wallets re-stacked into BTC for $122K.

That is the fourth time in months that they’ve bought massive portions from high native corporations solely to be dumped by the whales. In the meantime, long-term holders (LTHs) did not budge; international change reserves continued to say no, an indication of regular accumulation.

Political shocks trigger panic within the brief time period, however it appears that evidently it’s at all times the identical gamers who react.

Will October shock us all?

Up to now we have seen panic promoting, political shocks and basic short-term errors, however zooming out reveals this something interesting.

Supply:

Value drops of greater than 5% in October have solely occurred 4 instances previously decade, most notably in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. Every time, Bitcoin recovered inside per week, typically with double-digit beneficial properties. Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted a seven-day restoration to 21% after these uncommon dips in October.

Now, in October 2025, we might witness the same scenario. If the sample holds, this pullback may very well be a reset earlier than the subsequent leg up.