Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen Issues Ethereum Warning, Says ETH Could See Bearish Q4 If History Repeats

Widespread crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that Ethereum (ETH) may out of the blue flip bearish within the final three months of the 12 months.

Cows tells its 861,500 followers on the social media platform

Nonetheless, he says that if ETH follows an identical sample, it may ship huge positive factors within the first half (H1) of subsequent 12 months.

“With ETH turning inexperienced in September, it nonetheless follows the 2016 sample. If this holds, it will imply the fourth quarter is purple, adopted by the primary half of 2025. The fourth quarter of 2019 was additionally purple for ETH, however October was barely inexperienced. Tendencies could change, however it’s price following till it deviates.”

Ethereum is buying and selling at $2,375 on the time of writing, down 3.3% prior to now 24 hours.

Then the analyst suggests that Tether dominance (USDT.D) may have to interrupt under the trendline within the weekly time-frame earlier than Bitcoin (BTC) begins to rise, as this may point out market members are utilizing their stablecoins to build up crypto belongings. In response to Cowen, a declining proportion of Tether’s market cap relative to different cryptocurrencies has a historic relationship with Bitcoin’s upward pattern.

“I posted on March 14, 2024 that USDT dominance reached its long-term trendline, which was the native prime for BTC. All of us have a manner of convincing ourselves that this time is completely different, however USDT’s dominance has reached larger and better lows since then. This trendline should be damaged earlier than an actual future rally can start.”

Lastly, the analyst shares a graph of the logarithmic regression band of crypto market capitalization, which is designed to trace the honest worth of an asset class utilizing ‘non-bubble knowledge’. He says that primarily based on historic priority, the crypto market is not going to rise previous the honest worth into the overvalued space till early subsequent 12 months.

“Final cycle we had been sustainably overvalued in the direction of the tip of the half 12 months. However the cycle earlier than that wasn’t till the primary or second quarter of 2017. The cycle earlier than that wasn’t till the primary quarter of 2013. So once more, we may very well be taking a look at a market that does not turn into sustainably overvalued. till presumably subsequent 12 months. And if that did occur, it would not actually be uncommon. It will really nonetheless be consistent with what we noticed the cycles do earlier than.”

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