Retail traders miss $800 billion betting against Bitcoin dominance

After two years of ready for an “altcoin season” that by no means got here, non-public crypto merchants have missed out on about $800 billion in potential income by betting on Bitcoin’s dominance.

A brand new report from 10x Analysis exhibits that altcoins have lagged Bitcoin by that a lot this cycle, marking one of many largest relative underperformances since 2017.

The info highlights a profound shift in market construction, which is now more and more pushed by institutional flows, Bitcoin ETFs and threat aversion moderately than the speculative rotation patterns that fueled earlier bull runs.

Retail awaits ‘ghost season’

Historically, an altcoin season describes a interval through which smaller cryptocurrencies dramatically outperform Bitcoin, absorbing capital from the benchmark and delivering outsized returns within the quick time period.

In earlier cycles, particularly 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin positive factors flowed into Ethereum after which into mid-caps and meme tokens.

Nevertheless, 10x Analysis famous that this cycle has reversed that sample. As an alternative of rotation, liquidity round Bitcoin has been consolidated.

In accordance with the corporate, the information exhibits that buyers have shifted closely in the direction of BTC-denominated merchandise and away from higher-risk tokens.

It was famous:

“Over the previous 30 days, our tactical altcoin mannequin has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a trough in Bitcoin dominance. This shift follows a 75-day interval through which the mannequin favored altcoins, a section that coincided with Ethereum’s rally, however that pattern has clearly come to an finish.”

Moreover, 10X Analysis said that Korean retail merchants, lengthy thought of the engine of altcoin hypothesis, have additionally exited the commerce.

For context, Messari’s knowledge exhibits that Upbit, the biggest crypto alternate in South Korea, has seen its buying and selling quantity decline considerably this yr as merchants flip to US-listed crypto shares like Coinbase and MicroStrategy.

That migration, 10x Analysis argues, has taken each liquidity and persuasive energy out of the altcoin complicated.

Remarkably, CryptoSlate Earlier reviews assist this declare, declaring how altcoins have stalled in comparison with Bitcoin.

In accordance with the report, Bitcoin’s market capitalization surpassed $2.3 trillion in early October, setting a brand new all-time excessive of roughly $126,000. In the meantime, the whole market cap for altcoins (excluding stablecoins) has remained under the November 2021 peak of $1.6 trillion.

By mid-October, TOTAL2ES had reached simply $1.48 trillion, about $120 billion in need of its earlier excessive, whereas Bitcoin surpassed its personal report by 84%. From this hole comes 10x Analysis’s “missed revenue of $800 billion” determine.

10x Analysis wrote:

“Liquidity, momentum and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet.”

Contemplating this, Coinperp’s Altcoin season Indexwhich tracks how lots of the prime 100 tokens outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day interval, was solely capable of peak above 70 in early September – under the 75 threshold that defines a real alt season, and has since fallen again to 13 on the time of writing.

Altcoins are disappearing

In accordance with Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, the issue goes deeper than non permanent sentiment.

She pointed out that enterprise capital funding in early-stage Web3 initiatives has fallen sharply, depriving the business of latest tales and token launches.

Certainly, a Galaxy survey report revealed that crypto VC exercise is considerably decrease in comparison with earlier bull markets. In actual fact, the second quarter of 2025 was the second smallest quarter for the reason that fourth quarter of 2020 for enterprise investments in crypto and blockchain startups.

Chen added that the latest October 11 market shock, which worn out roughly $20 billion in leveraged crypto holders, “dealt a devastating blow to altcoins.”

She added:

“Retail buyers buying and selling altcoins face a horrible risk-reward ratio.”

Taking this into consideration, Bitget’s CEO stated {that a} broad altcoin season “will not occur in 2025 or 2026.”

In the meantime, she famous that there could also be some doable exceptions for initiatives issuing infrastructure tokens tied to real-world belongings (RWA), stablecoins and fee protocols.

Chen argues that these “infrastructure performs,” whereas unlikely to problem unstable native tokens, may anchor the following section of development. Ripple’s cross-border rails, Circle’s USDC ecosystem, and tokenized treasury platforms are already displaying that traction is shifting from hypothesis to service.

But retail curiosity persists. Knowledge from Google Traits exhibits that world search curiosity for “altcoin” reached a five-year excessive in August, matching pleasure ranges final seen in the course of the run-up to Ethereum in 2018.

How establishments are rewriting the playbook

In contrast to the retail-led mania of 2021, the present cycle has been formed by institutional capital.

In accordance with 10x Analysis, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, company treasury holdings, and yield-bearing stablecoins have redefined what counts as “secure” cryptocurrency publicity.

Notably, spot crypto ETFs have generated report inflows of greater than $40 billion in contemporary capital this yr, considerably outperforming different markets.

Because of this, retail merchants chasing fast returns on altcoins have been sidelined. So even modest rallies in belongings like Solana or Avalanche have rapidly come to a halt amid skinny order books and restricted basic catalysts.