StanChart predicts Bitcoin’s new cycle may defy past patterns with ETF and policy tailwinds

Bitcoin (BTC) noticed the strongest half-year efficiency ever on the finish of 2025, powered by record-ETF influx, coverage dangers for the Federal Reserve and the broadening of sovereign adoption, in line with Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset analysis at Commonplace Chartered.

In a analysis memorandum of two July, Kendrick predicted that ETF influx and purchases of firm chips will exceed the extent of the second quarter of 245,000 BTC in each the third and fourth quarter.

The lender maintained his earlier Bitcoin forecast who hit $ 200,000 per 12 months and his exterior prospects for Bitcoin up to date with a value projection of $ 135,000.

He added that Bitcoin ETF flows have already awarded expectations, whereby the market is beginning to understand that the post-radiation patterns of the crypto stay intact regardless of earlier doubts.

Purchase coverage within the tail wind and sovereign

Kendrick additionally emphasised that, along with the shopping for, markets are confronted with growing dangers for the independence of the Federal Reserve, as a result of President Donald Trump might probably exchange FED chairman Jerome Powell, which might be a shift to the financial coverage of the loss -sized financial coverage.

In response to Kendrick:

“ETF influx and firm treasures of firms are all linked within the US.”

As well as, growing the prospects of Bitcoin is the approval of the Genius Act within the US, which just lately obtained the approval from the Senate. Commonplace Chartered famous that such laws would enhance the readability of the rules, facilitate broader acceptance and additional combine crypto into the normal monetary system.

Kendrick additionally predicted the growth of the sovereign acceptance of Bitcoin and mentioned that any proof of buy at nationwide degree would help the lengthy -term and value stability demand, just like the influence of the treasury accumulation in latest months.

The halving cycles idea is over

The memorandum additionally went to the market in regards to the Halvering Cycle of Bitcoin, a deliberate occasion each 4 years that lowers mining rewards in two and traditionally influences the value patterns.

Kendrick defined that in earlier cycles the costs of Bitcoin fell about 18 months after a halving, which might suggest that the potential would fall round September or October this 12 months based mostly on the April 2024 Halving.

Nonetheless, Commonplace Chartered is of the opinion that the dynamics have modified. Kendrick wrote that due to robust ETF influx and shopping for firm treasures, components that had been absent in earlier cycles, Bitcoin can keep away from the standard decline.

He mentioned that the value will most likely be risky on the finish of September and the start of October, as a result of the markets give attention to this historic sample, however predicted that the upward development will resume on the finish of the 12 months, powered by these new structural demand components.

Kendrick concluded that within the coming months will exhibit how Bitcoin went past his earlier cease cycle habits, the place his prospects are merely summarized:

“Belts fastened.”

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