‘You can’t fake energy.’ Has Bitcoin finally gone green enough for Tesla?

Elon Musk lately revived the “51% renewables” benchmark, to report that the power that underpins Bitcoin “can’t be imitated.”

The reference refers to his earlier promise that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin funds as soon as at the very least half of mining power got here from clear or low-carbon sources.

Nevertheless, with the most recent information suggesting the community might have crossed that threshold, Tesla nonetheless has not re-enabled BTC checkout. Why?

Has Bitcoin already handed the bar?

In response to the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance’s Digital Mining Industry Report 2025Renewable power is now the driving drive behind roughly 52.4% of Bitcoin mining operations surveyed.

Of this, 42.6% comes from renewable power sources (hydro, wind, photo voltaic, and so on.) and 9.8% from nuclear or different low-carbon sources. On the similar time, contributions from fossil fuels have shifted: pure gasoline now accounts for 38.2% (from ~25% in 2022) and coal has fallen to eight.9% (from ~36.6%).

If Musk’s promise is taken actually, Bitcoin may already surpass the 51% “renewable power” restrict, at the very least as measured by Cambridge’s survey of corporations that account for about 48% of worldwide mining capability.

However that is solely half the story. The wording issues: Musk has referred to renewable power sources (50%) in earlier feedback, though in later tweets he says: “51% renewable power” or “power you possibly can’t pretend.” The Cambridge determine lumps collectively renewables and nuclear; the share of pure renewable power is decrease (42.6%).

So BTC may nonetheless fall brief relying on the rigidity of Musk’s definition.

Moreover, the Cambridge method is survey-based and solely covers a subset of miners. Off-grid actions, restricted renewables, regional peculiarities and non permanent mismatches (when renewables produce roughly relative to mining demand) complicate the image.

Different fashions, comparable to these based mostly on grid carbon depth or power monitoring, typically present extra conservative estimates of the share of renewable power. That distinction signifies that even a nominal “cross” is topic to debate.

So why hasn’t Tesla flipped the change?

Even assuming Bitcoin now qualifies for Musk’s sustainability check, Tesla has not enabled BTC funds once more. A lot of pragmatic and symbolic obstacles stay.

The primary is due diligence. Musk beforehand said that Tesla would solely resume funds as soon as he noticed “cheap (~50%) use of fresh power… and a pattern to extend that quantity.” That wording implies he is in search of perseverance, not a one-time information level.

A single report exhibiting 52% renewable power might not meet its requirement for a verified and sustained upward pattern in Bitcoin’s power combine.

One other issue is the readability of the definition. Tesla must determine whether or not “sustainable” contains nuclear and low-carbon sources, or strictly renewable power sources comparable to hydro, wind and photo voltaic. The Cambridge information combines these classes, however Musk’s earlier formulation particularly addressed renewables.

With out a universally accepted definition, any determination to renew BTC funds dangers being accused of greenwashing.

There’s additionally the difficulty of dealer and market threat. Accepting Bitcoin exposes Tesla to cost volatility, complicated accounting remedies and potential regulatory issues.

Even when the corporate instantly converts the BTC income into fiat, fluctuations between order placement and settlement introduce monetary uncertainty that is probably not price it for an automaker working on skinny margins.

Branded optics add one other layer. Tesla’s picture is constructed on environmental credibility, and even a small dip in Bitcoin’s power profile may spark backlash from traders and ESG-conscious prospects. The corporate might want to err on the aspect of warning somewhat than face renewed criticism if its mining operations transfer again into fossil fuel-heavy areas.

Lastly, operational integration can’t be ignored. To convey Bitcoin funds again on-line, Tesla must rebuild the pockets infrastructure, transaction pipelines, and conversion mechanisms. That requires engineering assets and inside approvals: steps which might be removed from trivial for a world producer already balancing a number of product launches and software program initiatives.

Taken collectively, these components counsel that assembly the 51% renewable power threshold will not be sufficient by itself. For Musk, the check seems to be as a lot about belief, consistency and notion as it’s about uncooked information. Till these align, Tesla’s checkout web page will seemingly stay crypto-free.

What this implies for adoption

From a story perspective, Musk’s renewed involvement has an impression. If Bitcoin can credibly keep on with a cleaner power combine and enormous industrial friends like Tesla begin transacting once more, it will solidify a extra sustainable narrative for crypto.

Nonetheless, Tesla’s continued off-chain standing, regardless of claims, means that Musk sees the promise as conditional, not computerized. The check is about optics, threat administration and tales in addition to easy statistics.

For now, Bitcoin’s claimed “51%+ sustainable” standing gives a compelling rebuttal to critics, however till the money registers return, it stays extra of a symbolic victory than a industrial one.